Sea Military Race

The South China Sea, a strategic waterway rich in natural resources and critical to global trade, has become a hotspot for escalating military activities, territorial disputes, and geopolitical rivalries. Over the past decade, tensions in the region have intensified as major powers, particularly China and the United States, engage in a high-stakes race to assert dominance through military build-up and strategic alliances.

Why the South China Sea Matters

The South China Sea spans over 3.5 million square kilometers and is a vital maritime corridor, with nearly $3.5 trillion in global trade passing through its waters each year. It is also believed to be rich in oil and natural gas reserves, making it a highly contested region among several countries, including:

• China

• Vietnam

• Philippines

• Malaysia

• Brunei

• Taiwan

These nations lay overlapping claims over islands and reefs, most notably the Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, and Scarborough Shoal.

China’s Military Expansion and Island-Building

China has taken a highly assertive approach by militarising artificial islands in disputed waters. Over the years, it has:

• Constructed airstrips, radar stations, and missile systems on several reefs and atolls.

• Established military garrisons in the Spratly and Paracel Islands.

• Deployed coast guard and maritime militia vessels to intimidate regional rivals.

Satellite imagery has confirmed the presence of runways capable of supporting fighter jets, naval docks, and surface-to-air missile systems on many of China’s artificial outposts.

Beijing claims it is protecting its sovereignty, citing the controversial "Nine-Dash Line" to justify nearly 90% control of the sea. However, this claim was ruled legally invalid by a 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling, which China continues to reject.

United States’ Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs)

In response to China’s growing footprint, the United States has stepped up naval patrols and aerial reconnaissance missions under its Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs). These missions aim to:

• Challenge China’s excessive maritime claims.

• Support allies in the region.

• Uphold international laws like the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

In 2025, the U.S. has deployed carrier strike groups, submarines, and unmanned systems in the region more frequently, often conducting joint exercises with allies such as Japan, Australia, the Philippines, and India.

Philippines and Regional Pushback

The Philippines, under increasing maritime pressure from China, has:

• Strengthened defence ties with the United States.

• Allowed the reopening of U.S. military bases under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).

• Publicly released videos and photos of Chinese harassment of Filipino fishermen and coast guard vessels.

Other ASEAN nations like Vietnam and Malaysia have also raised concerns about China’s aggressive tactics and have increased their own military presence in disputed waters.

Emerging Technologies and the Arms Race

The South China Sea has become a testing ground for emerging military technologies, including:

• Hypersonic missile deployments

• AI-based surveillance and naval systems

• Electronic warfare and cyber capabilities

• Drone swarms for reconnaissance and tactical support

China, the U.S., and regional actors are racing to integrate these technologies into their maritime strategy, further fuelling the arms race.

Quad and AUKUS: Strategic Counterweights

To balance China’s influence, the Quad alliance (India, U.S., Japan, Australia) and the AUKUS pact (Australia, U.K., U.S.) have intensified cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. Their activities include:

• Joint naval exercises like Malabar and Talisman Sabre

• Technology sharing (nuclear submarines, cyber defence)

• Intelligence coordination and interoperability training

These alliances signal a growing commitment by democracies to preserve the rules-based international order in the region.

The Risk of Escalation

The militarisation of the South China Sea raises concerns of:

• Accidental military confrontation between U.S. and Chinese forces.

• Disruption of global trade routes.

• Increased cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns.

• Environmental degradation due to island construction and military activity.

Diplomatic efforts by ASEAN and global institutions have made little progress due to China's refusal to compromise and the competing interests of claimant nations.

What Lies Ahead?

With no peaceful resolution in sight, the South China Sea is likely to remain a flashpoint for years to come. The current trajectory points toward:

• Greater militarisation and modernisation of fleets.

• Strategic partnerships strengthening against unilateral actions.

• Heightened surveillance and intelligence operations.

• Increased defence budgets across Asia-Pacific nations.

Global stakeholders must prioritise diplomacy and establish communication protocols to prevent miscalculations that could spiral into conflict.